If you're here to see how consistent your deck ratio is, Ctrl + F is recommended. Type in #-#-# in grade 1-grade 2-grade 3 order. ex: 15-11-7
Deck Building:
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| Let's hope that this never happens ever |
UPDATE: After an argument, calculations being thrown, recalculations being made, a calculator being programmed, and coming to matching conclusions, I can now proudly say that 13-11-9 is the most consistent deck ratio you can have when it comes to riding up your Vanguard. Yippee.
Also, due to how my priorities work, I refuse to continue working on this. My pigeon level attention span says no.
Anyway, good luck, cardfighters.
Also, due to how my priorities work, I refuse to continue working on this. My pigeon level attention span says no.
Anyway, good luck, cardfighters.
31-1-1 : 4.7% chance of riding.
30-2-1 : 8.6& chance of riding.
30-1-2 : 8.4% chance of riding.
29-3-1 : 11.7% chance of riding.
29-2-2 : 15.2% chance of riding.
29-1-3 : 11.2% chance of riding.
28-4-1 : 14.2% chance of riding.
28-3-2 : 20.8% chance of riding.
28-2-3 : 20.4% chance of riding.
28-1-4 : 13.4% chance of riding.
27-5-1 : 16.3% chance of riding.
27-4-2 : 25.3% chance of riding.
27-3-3 : 27.8% chance of riding.
27-2-4 : 24.3% chance of riding.
27-1-5 : 15% chance of riding.
26-6-1 : 17.9% chance of riding.
26-5-2 : 28.9% chance of riding.
26-4-3 : 33.8% chance of riding.
26-3-4 : 33.2% chance of riding.
26-2-5 : 27.3% chance of riding.
26-1-6 : 16.3% chance of riding.
25-7-1 : 19.2% chance of riding.
25-6-2 : 31.8% chance of riding.
25-5-3 : 38.7% chance of riding.
25-4-4 : 40.4% chance of riding.
25-3-5 : 37.3% chance of riding.
25-2-6 : 29.6% chance of riding.
25-1-7 : 17.2% chance of riding.
24-8-1 : 20.3% chance of riding.
24-7-2 : 34.2% chance of riding.
24-6-3 : 42.6% chance of riding.
24-5-4 : 46.2% chance of riding.
24-4-5 : 45.4% chance of riding.
24-3-6 : 40.4% chance of riding.
24-2-7 : 31.3% chance of riding.
24-1-8 : 17.9% chance of riding.
23-9-1 : 21.1% chance of riding.
23-8-2 : 36% chance of riding.
23-7-3 : 45.7% chance of riding.
23-6-4 : 50.8% chance of riding.
23-5-5 : 51.9% chance of riding.
23-4-6 : 49.2% chance of riding.
23-3-7 : 42.7% chance of riding.
23-2-8 : 32.6% chance of riding.
23-1-9 : 18.4% chance of riding.
22-10-1 : 21.7% chance of riding.
22-9-2 : 37.4% chance of riding.
22-8-3 : 48-1% chance of riding.
22-7-4 : 54.5% chance of riding.
22-6-5 : 57.1% chance of riding.
22-5-6 : 56.2% chance of riding.
22-4-7 : 52% chance of riding.
22-3-8 : 44.4% chance of riding.
22-2-9 : 33.5% chance of riding.
22-1-10 : 18.8% chance of riding.
21-11-1 : 22.1% chance of riding.
21-10-2 : 38.5% chance of riding.
21-9-3: 50% chance of riding.
21-8-4 : 57.4% chance of riding.
21-7-5 : 61.2% chance of riding.
21-6-6 : 61.8% chance of riding.
21-5-7 : 59.4% chance of riding.
21-4-8 : 54% chance of riding.
21-3-9 : 45.7% chance of riding.
21-2-10 : 34.1% chance of riding.
21-1-11 : 19.1% chance of riding.
20-12-1 : 22.5% chance of riding.
20-11-2 : 39.3% chance of riding.
20-10-3 : 51.4% chance of riding.
20-9-4 : 59.6% chance of riding.
20-8-5 : 64.4% chance of riding.
20-7-6 : 66.2% chance of riding.
20-6-7 : 65.3% chance of riding.
20-5-8 : 61.7% chance of riding.
20-4-9 : 55.5% chance of riding.
20-3-10 : 46.6% chance of riding.
20-2-11 : 43.6% chance of riding.
20-1-12 : 19.2% chance of riding.
19-13-1 : 22.7% chance of riding.
19-12-2 : 39.9% chance of riding.
19-11-3 : 52.5% chance of riding.
19-10-4 : 61.2% chance of riding.
19-9-5 : 66.8% chance of riding.
19-8-6 : 69.6% chance of riding.
19-7-7 : 69.9% chance of riding.
19-6-8 : 67.8% chance of riding.
19-5-9 : 63.4% chance of riding.
19-4-10 : 56.5% chance of riding.
19-3-11 : 47.1% chance of riding.
19-2-12 : 34.9% chance of riding.
19-1-13 : 19.3% chance of riding.
18-14-1 : 22.9% chance of riding.
18-13-2 : 40.3% chance of riding.
18-12-3 : 53.2% chance of riding.
18-11-4 : 62.4% chance of riding.
18-10-5 : 68.6% chance of riding.
18-9-6 : 72.2% chance of riding.
18-8-7 : 73.4% chance of riding.
18-7-8 : 72.5% chance of riding.
18-6-9 : 69.5% chance of riding.
18-5-10 : 64.5% chance of riding.
18-4-11 : 57.2% chance of riding.
18-3-12 : 47.5% chance of riding.
18-2-13 : 35% chance of riding.
18-1-14 : 19.4% chance of riding.
17-15-1 : 22.9% chance of riding.
17-14-2 : 40.5% chance of riding.
17-13-3 : 53.6% chance of riding.
17-12-4 : 63.2% chance of riding.
17-11-5 : 69.9% chance of riding.
17-10-6 : 74% chance of riding.
17-9-7 : 76% chance of riding.
17-8-8 : 76.1% chance of riding.
17-7-9 : 74.3% chance of riding.
17-6-10 : 71.1% chance of riding.
17-5-11 : 65.1% chance of riding.
17-4-12 : 57.5% chance of riding.
17-3-13 : 47.9% chance of riding.
17-2-14 : 35% chance of riding.
17-1-15 : 19.3% chance of riding.
16-16-1 : 22.9% chance of riding.
16-15-2 : 40.5% chance of riding.
16-14-3 : 53.9% chance of riding.
16-13-4 : 63.7% chance of riding.
16-12-5 : 70.7% chance of riding.
16-11-6 : 75.3% chance of riding.
16-10-7 : 77.9% chance of riding.
16-9-8 : 78.7% chance of riding.
16-8-9 : 77.8% chance of riding.
16-7-10 : 75.4% chance of riding.
16-6-11 : 71.3% chance of riding.
16-5-12 : 65.4% chance of riding.
16-4-13 : 57.6% chance of riding.
16-3-14 : 47.6% chance of riding.
16-2-15 : 35% chance of riding.
16-1-16 : 19.3% chance of riding.
15-17-1 : 22.8% chance of riding.
15-16-2 : 40.4% chance of riding.
15-15-3 : 53.8% chance of riding.
15-14-4 : 63.8% chance of riding.
15-13-5 : 71.1% chance of riding.
15-12-6 : 76% chance of riding.
15-11-7 : 79.1% chance of riding.
15-10-8 : 80.5% chance of riding.
15-9-9 : 80.4% chance of riding.
15-8-10 : 78.9% chance of riding.
15-7-11 : 75.9% chance of riding.
15-6-12 : 71.5% chance of riding.
15-5-13 : 65.4% chance of riding.
15-4-14 : 57.5% chance of riding.
15-3-15 : 47.4% chance of riding.
15-2-16 : 34.8% chance of riding.
15-1-17 : 19.2% chance of riding.
14-18-1 : 22.7% chance of riding.
14-17-2 : 40.2% chance of riding.
14-16-3 : 53.6% chance of riding.
14-15-4 : 63.7% chance of riding.
14-14-5 : 71% chance of riding.
14-13-6 : 76.2% chance of riding.
14-12-7 : 79.6% chance of riding.
14-11-8 : 81.5% chance of riding.
14-10-9 : 82% chance of riding.
14-9-10 : 81.2% chance of riding.
14-8-11 : 79.2% chance of riding.
14-7-12 : 76% chance of riding.
14-6-13 : 71.3% chance of riding.
14-5-14 : 65.1% chance of riding.
14-4-15 : 57.1% chance of riding.
14-3-16 : 47% chance of riding.
14-2-17 : 34.5% chance of riding.
14-1-18 : 19% chance of riding.
13-19-1 : 22.4% chance of riding.
13-18-2 : 39.8% chance of riding.
13-17-3 : 53.1% chance of riding.
13-16-4 : 63.2% chance of riding.
13-15-5 : 70.6% chance of riding.
13-14-6 : 76% chance of riding.
13-13-7 : 79.6% chance of riding.
13-12-8 : 81.8% chance of riding
13-11-9 : 82.8% chance of riding.
13-10-10 : 82.6% chance of riding.
13-9-11 : 81.4% chance of riding.
13-8-12 : 79% chance of riding.
13-7-13 : 75.6% chance of riding.
13-6-14 : 70.8% chance of riding.
13-5-15 : 64.5% chance of riding.
13-4-16 : 56.5% chance of riding.
13-3-17 : 46.5% chance of riding.
13-2-18 : 34% chance of riding.
13-1-19 : 18.8% chance of riding.
26-3-4 : 33.2% chance of riding.
26-2-5 : 27.3% chance of riding.
26-1-6 : 16.3% chance of riding.
25-7-1 : 19.2% chance of riding.
25-6-2 : 31.8% chance of riding.
25-5-3 : 38.7% chance of riding.
25-4-4 : 40.4% chance of riding.
25-3-5 : 37.3% chance of riding.
25-2-6 : 29.6% chance of riding.
25-1-7 : 17.2% chance of riding.
24-8-1 : 20.3% chance of riding.
24-7-2 : 34.2% chance of riding.
24-6-3 : 42.6% chance of riding.
24-5-4 : 46.2% chance of riding.
24-4-5 : 45.4% chance of riding.
24-3-6 : 40.4% chance of riding.
24-2-7 : 31.3% chance of riding.
24-1-8 : 17.9% chance of riding.
23-9-1 : 21.1% chance of riding.
23-8-2 : 36% chance of riding.
23-7-3 : 45.7% chance of riding.
23-6-4 : 50.8% chance of riding.
23-5-5 : 51.9% chance of riding.
23-4-6 : 49.2% chance of riding.
23-3-7 : 42.7% chance of riding.
23-2-8 : 32.6% chance of riding.
23-1-9 : 18.4% chance of riding.
22-10-1 : 21.7% chance of riding.
22-9-2 : 37.4% chance of riding.
22-8-3 : 48-1% chance of riding.
22-7-4 : 54.5% chance of riding.
22-6-5 : 57.1% chance of riding.
22-5-6 : 56.2% chance of riding.
22-4-7 : 52% chance of riding.
22-3-8 : 44.4% chance of riding.
22-2-9 : 33.5% chance of riding.
22-1-10 : 18.8% chance of riding.
21-11-1 : 22.1% chance of riding.
21-10-2 : 38.5% chance of riding.
21-9-3: 50% chance of riding.
21-8-4 : 57.4% chance of riding.
21-7-5 : 61.2% chance of riding.
21-6-6 : 61.8% chance of riding.
21-5-7 : 59.4% chance of riding.
21-4-8 : 54% chance of riding.
21-3-9 : 45.7% chance of riding.
21-2-10 : 34.1% chance of riding.
21-1-11 : 19.1% chance of riding.
20-12-1 : 22.5% chance of riding.
20-11-2 : 39.3% chance of riding.
20-10-3 : 51.4% chance of riding.
20-9-4 : 59.6% chance of riding.
20-8-5 : 64.4% chance of riding.
20-7-6 : 66.2% chance of riding.
20-6-7 : 65.3% chance of riding.
20-5-8 : 61.7% chance of riding.
20-4-9 : 55.5% chance of riding.
20-3-10 : 46.6% chance of riding.
20-2-11 : 43.6% chance of riding.
20-1-12 : 19.2% chance of riding.
19-13-1 : 22.7% chance of riding.
19-12-2 : 39.9% chance of riding.
19-11-3 : 52.5% chance of riding.
19-10-4 : 61.2% chance of riding.
19-9-5 : 66.8% chance of riding.
19-8-6 : 69.6% chance of riding.
19-7-7 : 69.9% chance of riding.
19-6-8 : 67.8% chance of riding.
19-5-9 : 63.4% chance of riding.
19-4-10 : 56.5% chance of riding.
19-3-11 : 47.1% chance of riding.
19-2-12 : 34.9% chance of riding.
19-1-13 : 19.3% chance of riding.
18-14-1 : 22.9% chance of riding.
18-13-2 : 40.3% chance of riding.
18-12-3 : 53.2% chance of riding.
18-11-4 : 62.4% chance of riding.
18-10-5 : 68.6% chance of riding.
18-9-6 : 72.2% chance of riding.
18-8-7 : 73.4% chance of riding.
18-7-8 : 72.5% chance of riding.
18-6-9 : 69.5% chance of riding.
18-5-10 : 64.5% chance of riding.
18-4-11 : 57.2% chance of riding.
18-3-12 : 47.5% chance of riding.
18-2-13 : 35% chance of riding.
18-1-14 : 19.4% chance of riding.
17-15-1 : 22.9% chance of riding.
17-14-2 : 40.5% chance of riding.
17-13-3 : 53.6% chance of riding.
17-12-4 : 63.2% chance of riding.
17-11-5 : 69.9% chance of riding.
17-10-6 : 74% chance of riding.
17-9-7 : 76% chance of riding.
17-8-8 : 76.1% chance of riding.
17-7-9 : 74.3% chance of riding.
17-6-10 : 71.1% chance of riding.
17-5-11 : 65.1% chance of riding.
17-4-12 : 57.5% chance of riding.
17-3-13 : 47.9% chance of riding.
17-2-14 : 35% chance of riding.
17-1-15 : 19.3% chance of riding.
16-16-1 : 22.9% chance of riding.
16-15-2 : 40.5% chance of riding.
16-14-3 : 53.9% chance of riding.
16-13-4 : 63.7% chance of riding.
16-12-5 : 70.7% chance of riding.
16-11-6 : 75.3% chance of riding.
16-10-7 : 77.9% chance of riding.
16-9-8 : 78.7% chance of riding.
16-8-9 : 77.8% chance of riding.
16-7-10 : 75.4% chance of riding.
16-6-11 : 71.3% chance of riding.
16-5-12 : 65.4% chance of riding.
16-4-13 : 57.6% chance of riding.
16-3-14 : 47.6% chance of riding.
16-2-15 : 35% chance of riding.
16-1-16 : 19.3% chance of riding.
15-17-1 : 22.8% chance of riding.
15-16-2 : 40.4% chance of riding.
15-15-3 : 53.8% chance of riding.
15-14-4 : 63.8% chance of riding.
15-13-5 : 71.1% chance of riding.
15-12-6 : 76% chance of riding.
15-11-7 : 79.1% chance of riding.
15-10-8 : 80.5% chance of riding.
15-9-9 : 80.4% chance of riding.
15-8-10 : 78.9% chance of riding.
15-7-11 : 75.9% chance of riding.
15-6-12 : 71.5% chance of riding.
15-5-13 : 65.4% chance of riding.
15-4-14 : 57.5% chance of riding.
15-3-15 : 47.4% chance of riding.
15-2-16 : 34.8% chance of riding.
15-1-17 : 19.2% chance of riding.
14-18-1 : 22.7% chance of riding.
14-17-2 : 40.2% chance of riding.
14-16-3 : 53.6% chance of riding.
14-15-4 : 63.7% chance of riding.
14-14-5 : 71% chance of riding.
14-13-6 : 76.2% chance of riding.
14-12-7 : 79.6% chance of riding.
14-11-8 : 81.5% chance of riding.
14-10-9 : 82% chance of riding.
14-9-10 : 81.2% chance of riding.
14-8-11 : 79.2% chance of riding.
14-7-12 : 76% chance of riding.
14-6-13 : 71.3% chance of riding.
14-5-14 : 65.1% chance of riding.
14-4-15 : 57.1% chance of riding.
14-3-16 : 47% chance of riding.
14-2-17 : 34.5% chance of riding.
14-1-18 : 19% chance of riding.
13-19-1 : 22.4% chance of riding.
13-18-2 : 39.8% chance of riding.
13-17-3 : 53.1% chance of riding.
13-16-4 : 63.2% chance of riding.
13-15-5 : 70.6% chance of riding.
13-14-6 : 76% chance of riding.
13-13-7 : 79.6% chance of riding.
13-12-8 : 81.8% chance of riding
13-11-9 : 82.8% chance of riding.
13-10-10 : 82.6% chance of riding.
13-9-11 : 81.4% chance of riding.
13-8-12 : 79% chance of riding.
13-7-13 : 75.6% chance of riding.
13-6-14 : 70.8% chance of riding.
13-5-15 : 64.5% chance of riding.
13-4-16 : 56.5% chance of riding.
13-3-17 : 46.5% chance of riding.
13-2-18 : 34% chance of riding.
13-1-19 : 18.8% chance of riding.
What about decks that use Grade 0 such as Chappie, Rock The Wall and Hagakure?
ReplyDeleteThank You!!! Ur awesome for doing this :D
ReplyDeleteIf you don't mind me asking. To what mathematical formula do you use to calculate the % of the deck ratios?
ReplyDeleteMostly hypergeometric distribution.
DeleteAnd then regular multiplication.
Okay yeah I don't think there's a specific formula...
DeleteI should note the majority of this can be figured out with a regular hypergeometric calculator.
I ran a program of all the grade ratios (including the ones you were too lazy to do), and I found this result instead.
ReplyDelete(Output)
The top 5 ratios (ordered gr1-gr2-gr3) for highest ride consistency are:
1st 12-11-10 at 83.12275%
2nd 12-12-9 at 82.83491%
3rd 13-11-9 at 82.79305%
4th 11-12-10 at 82.76725%
5th 13-10-10 at 82.62338%
Created by the Brampton Booster
While that sounds interesting, you're going to have to give me much more than just plainly that...
DeleteI'll prove the first one right here.
DeleteGrade 1:
Failures to not get 1 of 12 copies of intended card:
*Assert All values are computed using the statrek calculator (while the program uses the formula and keeps fractional values)
*Assert temp of 1 damage taken on every oponent's turn, and that the damage was not a copy of the card.
failure to get copy in the starting hand: 0.2286
failure to get copy after mull3 & Turn 1 draw: 0.2936
total failure: 0.2286*0.2936 = 0.06711696
total success: 1-0.06711696= 0.93288304
Grade 2:
Failures to not get 1 of 11 copies of intended card:
*same assertions are made
failure to get copy in the starting hand: 0.2632
failure to get copy after mull3 & Turn 1 draw: 0.3303
failure to get copy on Turn 2 draw: 0.7381
total failure: 0.2632*0.3303*0.7381 = 0.06416669397
total success: 0.93583330603
Grade 3:
Failures to not get 1 of 10 copies of intended card:
*same assertions are made
failure to get copy in the starting hand: 0.3019
failure to get copy after mull3 & Turn 1 draw: 0.3703
failure to get copy on Turn 2 draw: 0.7619
failure to get copy on Turn 2 drive: 0.7561
failure to get copy Turn 3 draw: 0.7436
total failure: 0.3019*0.3703*0.7619*0.7561*0.7436 = 0.0478887408
total success: 0.9521112592
combined successes: 0.93288304*0.93583330603*0.9521112592 =0.83121504637
Rounding it to 4 sig figs, I get 0.8312 or 83.12%, which matches exactly with my program.
The program I used to calculate ALL the ratios is here: http://bramptonbooster.wordpress.com/2013/08/13/grade-ratio-dump/
>that the damage was not a copy of the card.
DeleteOh dear, I think that's a problem.
DON'T assert ANYTHING about damage. Your math should /not/ even come close to even attempting to justify it. Long story short, (45*4)/(49*48)+(4*3)/(49*48)=4/49. Those numbers basically show that if you damage check at random, the probability of drawing a certain card after it will remain the same. For example, if I run 4 Perfect Guards and I drew the top card of my deck, the probability is obviously 4/49. If I were to damage check at random, the overall probability remains at 4/49.
I'm afraid your numbers may be wrong entirely man. I'm willing to ignore that you're using decimals and all, but from the sounds of it, that assertion alone is throwing everything Grade 2 and up waaaaaaay off.
What would be the percentage to ride up using a rank 1 ride chain, let's assume Blau ride chain to be specific, with a 12-8-13 ratio?
ReplyDeleteOverall probability to ride to grade 3? 86.3%
DeleteDoes that consider the probability to ride up every Grade?
DeleteIs that also considering the probability to ride Grade 1-3?
DeleteYou do realize that you asked the same question twice.
DeleteYes, this is literally all these calculations are about.
I was wondering if you could post ratios for 12-10 grade1s because I run a grade 3 checker goku deck and I haven't seen anyone cover that probability.
ReplyDelete