Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Pellinore's Problematic Probability

Let's assume you run 4 Lop Ear Shooters and 4 Pellinores, with no other cards of the like. From a deck of 49 cards, what's the probability of Superior Calling Pellinore after activating Spring Breeze Messenger?

2117/9212 Pull Pellinore
410/2303 Pull 1 Lop Ear
   185/759 Pull Pellinore
   741/5060 Pull 1 Lop Ear
      3202/12341 Pull Pellinore
      1332/12341 Pull 1 Lop Ear
         137/494 Pull Pellinore
         119/1976 Pull 1 Lop Ear
            1157/3885 Pull Pellinore
            2728/3885 Pull Nothing
         1309/1976 Pull Nothing
      37/12341 Pull 2 Lop Ear
         137/494 Pull Pellinore
         357/494 Pull Nothing
      1110/1763 Pull Nothing
   39/5060 Pull 2 Lop Ear
      3202/12341 Pull Pellinore
      703/12341 Pull 1 Lop Ear
         137/494 Pull Pellinore
         357/494 Pull Nothing
      8436/12341 Pull Nothing
   1/15180 Pull 3 Lop Ear
      3202/12341 Pull Pellinore
      9139/12341 Pull Nothing
   9139/15180 Pull Nothing
123/9212 Pull 2 Lop Ear
   185/759 Pull Pellinore
   26/253 Pull 1 Lop Ear
      3202/12341 Pull Pellinore
      703/12341 Pull 1 Lop Ear
         137/494 Pull Pellinore
         357/494 Pull Nothing
      8436/12341 Pull Nothing
   2/759 Pull 2 Lop Ear
      3202/12341 Pull Pellinore
      9139/12341 Pull Nothing
   494/759 Pull Nothing
1/4606 Pull 3 Lop Ear
   185/759 Pull Pellinore
   41/759 Pull 1 Lop Ear
      3202/12341 Pull Pellinore
      9139/12341 Pull Nothing
   533/759 Pull Nothing
2665/4606 Pull Nothing

2117/9212+410/2303(185/759+741/5060(3202/12341+1332/12341(137/494+119/1976*1157/3885)+37/12341*137/494)+39/5060*(3202/12341+703/12341(137/494))+1/15180*3202/12341)+123/9212(185/759+26/253(3202/12341+703/12341(137/494 ))+2/759(3202/12341))+1/4606(185/759+41/759(3202/12341))

0.2848968811838274

Pellinore has a 28.5% chance of going off, if we assume you have 4 Lop Ear Shooters.

...yeah...

3 comments:

  1. Good read, as usual NACHO.
    BYOND matches would be a pretty nice feature; being able to see a deck in actual action is much different (and in my opinion, better) than just describing it in words.

    I don't think I'm on consistently enough to help for videos, but you can ask me if you want and can catch me on.

    ~HydroKirby (AzureYoshi is my BYOND UN)

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  2. Excuse me, but 4 Lop Ear and 4 Pellinore isn't the highest possible input. The valkyries from Cavalry of Black Steel can also be adjourned considering the player has spare counterblasts. This is more likely to happen in the scenario the Pellinore Player goes first, as for the whole thing to be worth the attempt, the opponent has to be a Grade 2 (which means more counterblasts are avaliable, at the cost of less cards being in the deck/omgIdrewmy4lopears).

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    Replies
    1. I agree, we should all stock up on 4 8K Vanillas who have barely over a 1/3 chance of being pulled out by Spring Breeze or Lop Ear shenangians with only further a 1/12 chance of pulling out the target, Pellinore or 1/16 for another Lop Ear to try again.

      I must say though, I gotta watch these older articles for their less specific writing. I'm going to be blunt, those cards are terrible. No sort of justification can defend Flash Edge Valkyrie for her job. They're 8K vanillas when drawn, and have miserably poor chances of even going off with the Rabbit Support in place to even make up for that handicap. Along with only having even worse chances to pull out something worthwhile when you aren't considering that they need an /open/ Rear-Guard circle to call into, they are only deconstructive to whatever purpose the deck aims for by putting up terrible illusions of ever being able to actually do stuff. There's a reason why I also purposely didn't mention Blackmane Witch, and I'm not going to start using bad and even slightly counter-productive cards to even try to justify these sort of things.

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