Sunday, January 27, 2013

Never Let Stern Hit You Crazies

I read somewhere that it was actually a really smart strategy to just go ahead and let Stern hit once, so that when it uses its skill you can ride out the card advantage afterwards. Of course, I thought this was stupid. So, time for some Theory-Guard.

In this theoretical situation, Stern Blaukruger has a 16-20K column set up against an 11K Vanguard, and it just hit. *There are 38 cards left in the deck in total, with 3 Other Triggers and 9 Critical Triggers, and there are 39 cards left in the opponent's deck in total, with 12 triggers:

Stern Drive Check:
No Triggers=325/703
1 Other Trigger=78/703
2 Other Triggers=3/703
1 Critical Trigger=234/703
2 Critical Triggers=36/703
1 Critical, 1 Other=27/703

Opponent takes 1 damage:
No Triggers=9/13
1 Trigger 4/13

Stern Pulls No Triggers:
Opponent Pulls No Triggers=225/703
Opponent Pulls a Trigger=100/703

Stern Pulls 1 Other Trigger:
Opponent Pulls No Triggers=54/703
Opponent Pulls a Trigger=24/703

To those who just want to skip straight to the point, only 14% of the time will you ever actually save shielding after Stern uses its skill, 35% of the time will you still use the exact same shielding to stop Stern as before its skill, and 51% of the time will you hit either of or a combination of taking more damage than it was worth, and/or having to pay more shield after Stern's skill. Including that Stern still has a 1/3ish chance to pass more trigger power off to a Rearguard or a 1/6ish chance to check a Grade 3 to restand a hypothetical Death Army column, that leaves like 8% or so of the time of it actually being a beneficial move to let Stern hit. 8% of the time, and many other situations could lead to you almost instantly losing. Long story short, don't be stupid. Never actually let Stern hit or you will be on the losing side of the card or damage advantage.

*I want to explain 2 things real quick. First of all, yes this applies to a turn 3 player 1 Stern rush and presuming you have 2 damage only, however, because the average chance to hit a trigger shouldn't nor doesn't vary greatly between turns, that essentially means this formula is a one size fits all for whatever turn or amount of cards out of the deck. And before anyone argues Draw Triggers and Heal Triggers giving the player being attacked a benefit, I want to point out I completely disregarded Dancing Wolf which would've entirely changed the current set of percentages into an only 14% chance to break even and 86% chance to get fucked over lose card or damage advantage overall.

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